Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:
Let’s take a look at my Week 6 college football best bets.#1 Alabama (-23.5; 54.5) at Vanderbilt
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC)Alabama busted out to a 28-0 lead over Georgia, but they had to hang on for dear life, having lost the lead in the 4th quarter and needing to score with 2:28 left to win 41-34. How much energy does the Tide have for a road trip to Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt should be re-energized here after a much-needed bye week off of two straight road losses in the final seconds/overtime at Georgia State and at Missouri.
The Commodores will look to shorten the game with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia.
Vandy needs a couple of explosive plays to stay within the number against an Alabama defense that is still trying to come together under a new staff/scheme.
Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +23.5
#11 USC (-9; 49.5) at Minnesota
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (BTN)USC continues its first sojourn with a brutal Big Ten travel schedule going to Minnesota this week. They were in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, then back home vs. Wisconsin, and now back to the Midwest before hosting Penn State next week.
The Gophers are still figuring it out a bit on offense, although last week’s late surge might be a momentum changer. However, the Gophers’ defense ranks Top 10 nationally in both opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play. That is also part and parcel of slowing the tempo a little bit offensively, similar to what Michigan did.
While the Trojans’ defense has improved under new DC D’Anton Lynn, they can still be had at the line of scrimmage.
USC head coach Lincoln Riley is just 8-18-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +9
#10 Michigan at Washington (-1.5; 41.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)Here is the rematch of last year’s National Championship Game, which Michigan won 31-10. However, these teams led by two new head coaches could not look more different less than ten months later.
Michigan takes to the road for the first time this season after starting the season with five straight games and a 4-1 start in The Big House.
Washington is 3-2 with two close losses to Washington State and at Rutgers last week, where they won the yardage battle but lost on the scoreboard. The Huskies rank in the Top 18 nationally for yards per game on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Last week, Michigan (-10) was up 24-3 entering the 4th but Minnesota went tempo later in the game and Michigan barely hung on in a 27-24 win. Washington will do the same with Will Rogers running Jedd Fisch’s pro-style offense.
Meanwhile, Washington (+1’) outgained Rutgers 521-299 but missed 3 FGs, falling 21-18.
Michigan has been running a bit lucky over the last couple of weeks, upsetting USC with just 32 passing yards and then getting outgained by Minnesota, 296-241, and only averaging 3.6 yards per carry on the ground.
Washington defensive coordinator Steve Belichick will force Alex Orji to beat his defense through the air and Michigan has not shown the ability to do that.
Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Washington -120 ML
Duke at Georgia Tech (-8.5; 53)
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ACC)Somehow, the Duke Blue Devils are 5-0 under first-year head coach Manny Diaz.
Duke’s wins include a 26-3 victory over FCS Elon, a double OT triumph at Northwestern, a fourth-quarter rally to beat UConn by five, a blowout win in a weather-delayed game vs. Middle Tennessee, and last week rallying from a 20-0 deficit to win the Victory Bell over rival North Carolina.
Perhaps the Blue Devils left it all on the field last week vs. the Tar Heels. However, there is something to be said for momentum. Nonetheless, Duke travels to face Georgia Tech, who caught a bye week at just the right time.
The Yellow Jackets finally get a conference home game this week. They started the season traveling to Dublin and defeating Florida State. Two weeks later, Georgia Tech had to travel to Syracuse, and then had to go to Louisville two weeks ago. Both games resulted in road losses.
Georgia Tech outgained Louisville 410-326 but gave up two scores (fumble return in 1st quarter; blocked FG return in 4th quarter) on defense and special teams.
The Jackets OL has allowed 0 sacks all season and QB Haynes King has a 6-1 ratio, is hitting 74% and is their #2 rusher with 206 yards (5.2). If Georgia Tech gets up early, Duke will have a tough time playing catch up with the passing game, as Maalik Murphy’s completion percentage is just right at 60%.
Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Georgia Tech -8.5
#8 Miami (FL) (-11; 54) at California
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Berkeley gets to host ESPN’s College Gameday for the first time in program history in the wee hours of the morning and then gets to close out the night hosting Miami in the home conference opener for ACC After Dark.
Miami is off a last-second win over Virginia Tech and now must travel all the way across the country to take on a Cal team that has exceeded some early season expectations, having won at Auburn and will be coming off of a bye week to get healthy, especially on offense where RB Jaydn Ott had been off to a slow start due to an ankle injury, but looked good at Florida State. A pair of wide receiver transfers — Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame) and Kyion Graves (Ohio State) — may also see their first action of the season.
The U’s No. 1 offense in terms of yards per game (594.8) will get its biggest test against a Cal bunch that ranks 9th in opponent points per game (12.7) and 16th for opponent yards per game (282).
The Bears’ pass D is #5, allowing just 51%, and they lead the country with 10 INTs, and Miami QB Cam Ward did throw two picks last week vs. Virginia Tech.
Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) in his career as an underdog, including 12-5 ATS (70.5%) at home and has a 15-7 ATS (68.2%) mark as a double-digit underdog.
Week 6 College Football Best Bet: California +11
